I haven’t posted anything for several days, but I have been keeping track of things in the news. I watched the Friday news shows, such as McLaughlin Group, and also the shows that play Sunday morning, such as Chris Matthews, Sunday Morning, Meet the Press, and Face the Nation.

Not surprisingly, the main topic of conversation was the Abomey/Clinton race. Of course the mainstream media loves this, and is going to try and milk the close race for what it’s worth, not worrying about the facts so much. Of course, they will duck and hide behind any and all accusations of bias, and act in a way that sustains the controversy. That is what is in their self interest. (But, I just have to drop in that when commentators like Pat Buchanan go off on the McLaughlin Group and state that Obama is getting votes from white people because of "white guilt," that goes way too far. McLaughlin should have come down harder on that. That was racist, I think.)

No doubt the race is tight. And, it isn’t completely clear yet who will emerge with the nomination. Three main questions have arisen that I think are worthy of thinking about. (1) who wins the elected delegate count, (2) who wins the overall popular vote across the country, and (3) what about Florida and Michigan?

These are good questions. Howard Dean made several mainstream media appearances this morning, and said that the rules have to be followed. This apparently means that (1) he will not allow the Michigan and Florida votes as they were be counted, and (2) the superdelegates will be able to vote for whomever they want, regardless of it is for someone who didn’t win the most elected delegates. These are the rules going in, and they will be the rules going out, according to Dean.

It would be a travesty of justice to allow the current results in Michigan and Florida to stand. Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan, and no one campaigned in Florida. The Clinton campaign knows that this is true, yet they keep pushing, including so-called “respected” elders of the party, such as Sen. Levin (and even to a lesser extent, Sen. Nelson,) for the current results to stand. This is repugnant and unbecoming of such respected leaders. It just would not be fair. It’s like officials calling two teams for the championship game and telling them it’s cancelled. One team shows up, shoots a few baskets without any opposition, and claim victory. It’s absurd. If the Dems stoop to this to keep the current power structure in place, then pox on their house.

The worst situation is Florida. There, the Republican controlled legislature and governor, fully aware of what the DNC had done, purposefully put the Florida primary up ahead of the deadline. There are more details of this, including a less than vigorous fight put up by the state Dems, but nevertheless, it was a bad deal for the Dems. But, to allow Clinton to bag a bunch of the state delegates in a state where no campaigning occurred and which was deemed to be “illegal” by the DNC, so early in the campaign seems hardly fair. I think Obama should oppose that strongly.

But, Obama needs to be careful about being perceived as trying to manipulate in any way those folks’ ability to have a compliant primary. Find a way to redo the primary. Give the candidates a decent amount of time to campaign, and then have another vote. It will be more representative than the original non-compliant primaries. But, I do agree that in some way or another, the Florida and Michigan delegations should be seated.

It looks pretty certain that Obama will end up the primaries with the most elected delegates. That normally should entitled him to a majority of the superdelegates. However, if the elected delegate count is very close - say within a couple percent, and Clinton actually can show that she won the overall nationwide popular vote, that would legitamiately cloud the waters. At that point, more details of the entire election cycle would have to be analyzed.

The Clinton camp makes a big deal out of the fact that they have carried these big states. Honestly, all that tells me is that when there are so many people out there that a more personal contact becomes impossible, that machine politics becomes very important, and no doubt about it, the Clintons have a big advantage in that regard. But the more important question is, whether or not the percent of people that Obama is bringing into the Democratic primaries that will vote for Clinton in the general if she becomes nominee is more or less than the percent of people that are voting for Clinton that will vote for Obama in the general. I have to think that the people voting for Clinton are more the base Democrats, and that they will vote for the Democratic nominee regardless. Obama brings in new people, and I think it is likely that a much larger percent of them won’t vote for Clinton if she is the nominee, especially if it is perceived that political heavy handedness choose Clinton and screwed Obama.

We’ll just have to wait to see how things come out. But there is no doubt that Clinton is on the attack. It’s sad to see her get down in the dirt in desperation to win. And this faux olive branch, offering to allow Obama to be VP for her, is, in her own words as she spoke to Jon Steward the other night, “pathetic.”

As I wrote several weeks ago, if it is perceived that the big shots of the party - the Machine politicians - rob Obama of what he rightfully earned, we will see the biggest split of the Democratic party that we have seen in our lifetimes. It may be the end of the Democrats. But every end is a beginning. We definitely need a new direction in our country, but let’s face it - a lot of the system Dems don’t want that much change. They like the money coming in from the PACs, and they don’t want no upstarts changing that. Obama may seem like a threat because he hasn’t been in long enough to owe all the old timers enough for them to control him. But that’s exactly what the public wants and needs. Unfortunately, much of the public is susceptible to the fear tactics that we have seen, and the Clintons and their team are masters of political campaigns. I still think Obama is going to win the nomination, but I may be wrong. It’s going to be an interesting several weeks.